(AsiaGameHub) – Sportsbooks are once again gearing up for another loss as the NFL Draft kicks off tonight. These betting establishments always approach the draft with a mix of anxiety and dislike, and this year is no exception.
“Bookmakers can’t stand the draft,” said Jeff Benson, Circa Sports’ Director of Operations. “It’s a ton of work with no payoff, and we have absolutely no chance of winning. We lose five to six figures annually on it.”
What makes the NFL Draft such a challenging event for sportsbooks? In today’s hyper-connected information era, they can’t keep up with savvy bettors hunting for actionable insights.
“When dealing with any draft market—honestly, for most places—it’s not a question of whether you win or lose, but how much you lose,” said Thomas Gable, Director of the Borgata Sportsbook. “The sharper customers will get to information before you do.”
Ed Salmons, vice president of risk at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told me three years ago that he didn’t “like the draft, but it’s simply something we have to do. You have no control over it—none at all. It’s not like a game where things happen and mistakes are made.”
Unlike a real game, this is an information-driven market, and as Ben Fawkes writes: “…Once credible information is released and bet on, the market can shift quickly—and no money will come back on the opposite side. That information could arrive as fast as a single post on X from ESPN’s Adam Schefter.”
DraftKings Sportsbook Director Johnny Avello shared similar views.
“The draft has never been an easy event to handle for betting because it doesn’t rely on power ratings,” Avello said. “It’s not a matchup between two teams where you factor in home-field advantage and other things. It’s all about information.”
Sportsbooks Adjust Their Strategies to Minimize Risk
Sportsbooks have taken specific steps to reduce their risk of excessive losses related to the NFL Draft. These include:
- Launching betting markets later
- Reducing bet limits
- Providing fewer wagering options
As a result, there are far fewer opportunities for sharp bettors to exploit sportsbooks. Matt Freedman, who has been betting on the NFL Draft since 2018, is among those affected.
“I think in the 2021 NFL Draft, I placed over 300 different bets—an incredible number,” Freedman said. “But since sportsbooks took heavy hits in 2020 and 2021, I don’t see an incentive for them to go back to those wide-open markets. What we have now is a good indication of what we’ll see moving forward. I’d say it’s dried up for professional bettors.”
This article is provided by a third-party. AsiaGameHub (https://asiagamehub.com/) makes no warranties regarding its content.
AsiaGameHub delivers targeted distribution for iGaming, Casino, and eSports, connecting 3,000+ premium Asian media outlets and 80,000+ specialized influencers across ASEAN.
